I was mostly wrong about Instagram's plans and also mostly right. I know, that oxymoronic statement makes little sense unless you consider that Instagram Direct, unveiled on Thursday in New York, is the very first big step into a full-scale encroachment on Snapchat's territory. It also means Facebook, to borrow a Taylor Swift lyric, will never, ever, ever bid on Snapchat again.
A couple of days ago, I predicted Instagram would unveil some sort of direct image messaging system and I almost called it Instagram Direct: "The ability to make chat-based or direct Instagrams temporary." Instagram Direct is, as I guessed, a way of sharing images "between only a group of Instagram friends or with just one other user."
However, most of the other features I predicted are not a part of this new direct communication tool. You cannot mark up photos and videos with avatars, meme text or a digital magic marker. Nor do the images disappear. Instagram's skeletal contact system remains mostly unchanged.
Some might say that Facebook just proved how you can save $3 billion dollars. More than once over the last 12 months, the company reportedly sought to acquire Snapchat, but was spurned, with Founder and CEO Evan Spiegel later telling the BBC, "We're enjoying being an independent company." Since then, Facebook has increasingly dealt with charges that its teen user base is dwindling. The company denies this, but its efforts to gobble up Snapchat may say otherwise.
The decision to move forward with its own image-centric direct message platform (on the back of its most popular image-sharing social network) means that Facebook won't return to the Snapchat acquisition well a third time. If investors are paying attention, Facebook's stock should, right now, be on the rise. (At the market's close Facebook stock was, at $58.84, up a little over 2%).
So Wrong I Was Right
I got a lot wrong and yet I know that with Instagram Direct, Instagram has just opened a huge door. A private messaging platform, which is more or less what this is, means it's much more receptive to feature enhancements that users can choose to utilize in a mostly hidden setting. In other words, changes Instagram makes to Instagram Direct don't have to appear network wide. Most users can ignore them, if they like.
And for the most part, Instagram Founder and CEO Kevin Systrom, who unveiled the feature in NYC, did not rule out many of these changes.
The groups, which can comprise of up to 15 people, will eventually support names, which means you can then easily select which group you want to share with. Currently the system intuits sets of people you follow on Instagram and people you often Instagram Direct with and presents them at the top of the list of people you can share with directly.
Mark-up is not part of the toolset right now, but Systrom did not rule it out when I asked him about it.
Snapchat-style image evaporation, on the other hand, may not be in the offing. When asked about "ephemeral" photos, Systrom replied, "Instagram is focused on capturing and sharing the world's moments and what we're best at is archiving those moments and sharing with your friends."
Instagram Direct in the Future
These, though, are early days. Once Instagram execs see how people are using Instagram Direct, Systrom may change his tune, or perhaps Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook bought Instagram in 2011) will make him change it. Systrom told us that Zuckerberg was very excited about Instagram Direct and served as an early beta tester.
As it stands, Instagram direct has almost zero connection to Facebook. Systrom explained that you cannot currently use Instagram Direct to privately share an image with a Facebook friend. Even so, Zuckerberg must see all the opportunity in this new platform. If he wants Systrom to add Snapchat-like features to Instagram Direct, like disappearing images and markup, they will get added.
To be fair, Zuckerberg is probably not the only one who will be calling for these features. Instragram users will be privately sharing some pretty racy stuff on Instagram Direct. It's only natural that they'll want the ability to expire some of those images.
What Might Have Been
Founder and CEO Even Spiegel is probably kicking himself right now. Sure, Instagram Direct poses no immediate threat, but Spiegel knows Zuckerberg considers the Snapchat user base and feature set valuable. When some of those signature Snapchat features do start appearing in Instagram Direct, Spiegel will know the courtship is officially kaput.
The decision to build or buy is one that weighs heavily on most businesses and especially tech entrepreneurs. If you build it, you have total control, but you've also spent countless resources and possibly had to bring in or develop skills your company didn't even have. Buying is easy, as long as the technology or platform is a good fit.
With public social image-sharing, Facebook chose to buy Instagram. That went so well, it was reportedly ready to buy again. But as soon as Snapchat, allegedly, rebuffed Facebook, the company got to building.
Instagram Direct is no Snapchat and it may never eclipse the functionality or popularity of it, but one thing is certain, Facebook's days of coveting Snapchat are over.
